The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October 2026 jobs report on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 65,000, after a muThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October 2026 jobs report on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 65,000, after a mu

October 2026 Jobs Report Preview: What to Expect and How Stocks Have Reacted

#TradFi

INDEX$0.00869-1.58%

M$0.83168-2.16%

Author: MEXC Editorial Team

2026/11/05 13:23

The report is one of the last major labor-market readings before the Federal Reserve's December 8–9 meeting. This preview covers the forecasts, what September showed, and how stocks and MEXC index futures moved on recent jobs report days.

October Jobs Report: What to Expect

Release: Friday, November 6, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET, per the BLS release schedule
Nonfarm payrolls: +65,000 expected, according to a Reuters poll
Unemployment rate: 4.2%, according to Goldman Sachs' forecast
Average hourly earnings: +0.3% month over month, according to Goldman Sachs' forecast

A Reuters poll figure for the unemployment rate and wages was not available at the time of writing, so the Goldman Sachs forecasts are shown for reference. Goldman's own payrolls forecast is 75,000.

What Happened in September

The September jobs report from the BLS showed a sharp slowdown in hiring.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, against a Reuters consensus of 90,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% from August to $37.81, up 3.0% from a year earlier.
July was revised to -10,000 from -31,000, and August to +133,000 from -29,000. Together, the two months were revised by a net 60,000 jobs.

Large revisions are common in recent reports. The first payrolls figure for any month can change materially in the following two releases.

Why This Report Matters for the Fed

The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is on December 8–9, 2026, according to the FOMC meeting calendar. The October and November jobs reports are the two payrolls releases scheduled before that decision.

Payroll growth, the unemployment rate and wage growth are three of the main labor-market inputs the Fed watches. A gap between the actual figures and forecasts can shift interest-rate expectations, which in turn affect Treasury yields and stock prices.

How Stocks Moved on Recent Jobs Report Days

Release-day close-to-close moves for the last six jobs reports. Index and yield data are from Yahoo Finance; consensus figures are from Reuters polls.

October 2 (September report): +29K vs +90K expected; S&P 500 +0.73%, Nasdaq Composite +1.19%, 10-year yield +4.0 bp
September 4 (August report): +162K vs +56K; S&P 500 -0.38%, Nasdaq -0.29%, 10-year yield +2.2 bp
August 7 (July report): -23K vs +80K; S&P 500 +0.62%, Nasdaq +1.30%, 10-year yield -1.0 bp
July 2 (June report): +57K vs +110K; S&P 500 0.00%, Nasdaq -0.80%, 10-year yield +1.0 bp
June 5 (May report): +172K vs +85K; S&P 500 -2.64%, Nasdaq -4.18%, 10-year yield +5.9 bp
May 8 (April report): +115K vs +62K; S&P 500 +0.84%, Nasdaq +1.71%, 10-year yield -2.8 bp

In this sample, the three reports that came in below expectations were not followed by a lower S&P 500 close. Two of the three reports above expectations were.

The sample is small, and other news moves markets on the same day. A weak or strong number has not reliably predicted the direction of stocks.

How MEXC Index Futures Moved Around the Last Jobs Report

MEXC's SPX500_USDT and NAS100_USDT perpetual futures were trading when the September report came out at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 2, an hour before the U.S. cash market opened. Figures below come from MEXC's public futures API (15-minute candles).

Before the release: SPX500_USDT was at 7,707.9 and NAS100_USDT at 30,723 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
First 15 minutes: SPX500_USDT rose 0.28% to 7,729.7 and NAS100_USDT rose 0.39% to 30,842 by 8:45 a.m.
8:30–9:30 a.m. range: SPX500_USDT traded between 7,707.9 and 7,745.9 (up to +0.49%), and NAS100_USDT between 30,723 and 30,953 (up to +0.75%).
At the 9:30 a.m. open: SPX500_USDT was up 0.32% and NAS100_USDT up 0.50% from their pre-release levels. At 11:00 a.m., they were up 0.36% and 0.58%.
Turnover: in the 8:30–8:45 a.m. window, turnover was about 1.59 million USDT for SPX500_USDT and 2.52 million USDT for NAS100_USDT, 7.8 and 8.1 times their average 15-minute turnover over the preceding 90 minutes.

Most of the move came in the first 30 minutes after the release, before the cash market opened. The S&P 500 later closed the day up 0.73% and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.19%.

MEXC SPX500_USDT and NAS100_USDT 15-minute closes from 7:00 to 11:00 a.m. ET on October 2, 2026, indexed to 100 at 8:30 a.m. Source: MEXC public futures API.

Following the Jobs Report Through MEXC

MEXC lists perpetual futures on major U.S. stock indexes, including SPX500_USDT, NAS100_USDT and US30_USDT. Because they trade around the clock and settle in USDT, the market reaction to the 8:30 a.m. release can be followed before the cash market opens. See how to trade stock futures on MEXC.

Perpetual futures do not give ownership of the underlying index constituents, and they carry funding, leverage and liquidation risk.

FAQ

When is the October 2026 jobs report released?

Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the BLS release schedule.

What is expected in the October jobs report?

A Reuters poll expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 65,000. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 4.2% unemployment rate and a 0.3% monthly rise in average hourly earnings.

Why does the jobs report matter for the Fed?

It is one of two payrolls reports before the Fed's December 8–9 meeting, and labor-market data feed into interest-rate expectations.

How does the stock market usually react to the jobs report?

There is no consistent pattern. Over the last six reports, release-day S&P 500 moves ranged from -2.64% to +0.84%, and weaker-than-expected reports were not followed by lower closes.

Market Opportunity

The Index Price(INDEX)

$0.00869

$0.00869$0.00869

USD

The Index (INDEX) Live Price Chart

The articles shared on this page are sourced from public platforms and are provided for reference only. They do not represent the position or views of MEXC. All rights belong to MEXC Editorial Team. If you believe any content infringes upon the rights of a third party, please contact service@support.mexc.com for prompt removal. MEXC does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC. For expert insights and in-depth analysis, visit MEXC Learn.