Buy Crypto Markets Spot FuturesBTC Earn Event Center Rewards Hub

First Week of October 2026 Settlement Period: September 30, 2026 – October 6, 2026 Data Cutoff: October 6, 2026 Core Narratives Over the past week, the crypto market experienced a dip followed by aFirst Week of October 2026 Settlement Period: September 30, 2026 – October 6, 2026 Data Cutoff: October 6, 2026 Core Narratives Over the past week, the crypto market experienced a dip followed by a

Learn/Market Insights/Hot Topic Analysis/October Rate Hike Odds Collapse From 70% to 14% — Is BTC Headed to $93,700 or $82,500? | MEXC Alpha Trader Research Weekly

October Rate Hike Odds Collapse From 70% to 14% — Is BTC Headed to $93,700 or $82,500? | MEXC Alpha Trader Research Weekly

Author: MEXC

Oct 8, 2026MEXC

22 min

First Week of October 2026

Settlement Period: September 30, 2026 – October 6, 2026

Data Cutoff: October 6, 2026

Core Narratives

Over the past week, the crypto market experienced a dip followed by a rebound amid intense fluctuations in macroeconomic data and policy expectations. Bitcoin started in the $83,000–$85,000 range, facing pressure early in the week due to surging U.S. Treasury yields. However, as core PCE came in below expectations, non-farm payrolls missed forecasts, and Federal Reserve officials struck a dovish tone, market expectations for an October rate hike plummeted from 70% to 14%. BTC staged a strong rebound to above $86,000, posting a weekly gain of approximately 3.7%.

Core PCE declines more than expected, easing inflationary pressures marginally. The U.S. Core PCE Price Index for August, released on September 30, rose 0.2% month-over-month, below the market expectation of 0.3%; it held steady at 3.0% year-over-year, also missing the expected 3.3%. The PCE Price Index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Although the data remains above the 2% target, the marginal improvement has provided the market with some breathing room.

Non-farm payrolls disappoint, sharply reducing October rate hike expectations. The U.S. September non-farm payrolls, released on October 2, increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, with a cumulative downward revision of 60,000 for the previous two months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, driven by a rebound in the labor force participation rate, while hourly wage growth slowed to 3.0%. Following the data release, CME FedWatch showed that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October rose to 77.3%-77.9%, with the probability of a rate hike dropping to around 22%, indicating that the market has largely "priced out" an October rate hike. Huatai Securities pointed out that the September non-farm report marginally reduced the urgency for the Fed to continue raising rates. Coupled with statements from key officials such as Williams and Jefferson indicating no preference for consecutive rate hikes, the remaining magnitude of rate hikes within the year is approximately one time.

ETF Inflows Slow, IBIT Stands Out. For the week ending October 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $82.9 million, a significant slowdown from the previous week's $2.4 billion. BlackRock's IBIT absorbed about $292 million, but excluding IBIT, other ETFs saw a combined net outflow of approximately $240.8 million.

Overall, market sentiment recovered this week driven by the triple forces of "cooling PCE, disappointing non-farm payrolls, and dovish officials." BTC returned above $86,000, but resistance at $87,000 remains strong. Market focus has shifted to the release of the Fed's September meeting minutes on October 8, and the FOMC meeting on October 27-28.

I. Core Developments in the Crypto Market

1. Institutional Capital: Weekly ETF Inflows Slow to $82.9 Million, IBIT Stands Out

From the last week of September to early October, capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs slowed significantly.

According to data from SoSoValue and Farside, for the week ending October 3, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $82.9 million, a sharp decline from the previous week's $2.4 billion. Inflows were $31 million on September 28 and $66.2 million on September 29, but the flow reversed on September 30, with a single-day net outflow of $148.7 million, ending nine consecutive trading days of net inflows.

Capital was highly concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT. From Monday to Thursday, IBIT attracted approximately $292 million, including a single-day inflow of $195.6 million on October 1. In contrast, all Bitcoin ETFs combined generated only $51.2 million in net inflows over the same four days—excluding IBIT, the remaining ETFs saw an overall net outflow of approximately $240.8 million. Fidelity's FBTC recorded cumulative net outflows of approximately $167.9 million for the week, while Grayscale's GBTC saw net outflows of $54.6 million.

Ethereum ETFs shifted to net outflows during the same period. On October 1, outflows totaled $55 million, and on October 2, they reached $37 million, resulting in a combined two-day outflow of approximately $92 million.

2. Price Performance: BTC Fails to Break $87,000; Major Coins Consolidate in a Narrow Range

From September 30 to October 6, Bitcoin experienced a trend of "early-week pressure – data-driven catalyst – rebound and breakout."

September 30–October 1: Bitcoin oscillated within the $83,000–$85,000 range, suppressed by high U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.342%, hitting a new high since April 2002.

Oct 2 (Non-Farm Payrolls Day): Non-farm payrolls data fell significantly short of expectations, sharply reducing rate hike expectations for October, and Bitcoin gained upward momentum.

Oct 3-5: BTC continued to rebound, briefly breaking through $86,000 on Oct 4 and reaching a high of approximately $87,146. As of Oct 3, Bitcoin was trading at around $84,506, with a 24-hour high of $87,146 and a low of $83,852.

Oct 6: BTC oscillated in the $85,600-$87,000 range, making multiple unsuccessful attempts to break through $87,000.

Regarding other mainstream Cryptos, Ethereum fluctuated narrowly in the $2,680–$2,775 range, closing at approximately $2,716 on October 6; the "Glamsterdam" upgrade was activated on the Sepolia testnet on October 6. Solana repeatedly contested the $120 mark within the $118–$122 range, with significant contraction in order book liquidity. XRP traded in the $1.46–$1.55 range, with trading volume in the South Korean market surging to the top, though analysts believe this is insufficient to immediately alter the global supply and demand landscape.

Asset	Weekly Change	Price Range
Bitcoin	Approx. +2.5%~+3.5%	$83,640 – $87,146
Ethereum	Approx. +2%~+3%	$2,670 – $2,777
Solana	Approx. +1%~+2%	$116 – $122
XRP	Approx. 0%~+1%	$1.46 – $1.55
Total Crypto Market Cap	Approx. +1%~+2%	$2.85 – $2.95 trillion

Data Source: MEXC, CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Fortune, Blockchain News

Technical Outlook: Bitcoin has been consolidating within the $82,500–$87,400 range for two weeks, forming a typical compression pattern—with support steadily rising and resistance repeatedly tested. A breakout above $87,374 with sustained holding would target $90,000–$93,700; a drop below the moving average support cluster at $84,393–$85,373 could lead to a retest of $82,500 or even lower. The daily RSI is around 62, indicating a relatively high level but not overbought, while MACD momentum is flattening, suggesting that upward momentum has paused rather than reversed.

3. Stablecoins: Total Market Cap Stabilizes at $315 Billion, RLUSD and USDC Drive Quarterly Growth

From September 30 to October 6, the stablecoin market remained generally stable, with the total market cap staying above $315 billion.

According to DefiLlama data, as of October 6, the total market capitalization of stablecoins was approximately $315.3 billion, with a slight decrease of 0.07% over the past 7 days and a decline of 2.34% over the past 30 days. The market cap of USDT is approximately $186.4 billion, accounting for about 59.12%, solidifying its leading position; the market cap of USDC is approximately $75 billion, accounting for about 23.8%, making it the largest MiCA-authorized USD stablecoin.

Q3 Growth Landscape: Circle and Ripple Lead. According to statistics from the RWA Foundation, as of October 1, in terms of stablecoin market cap growth in the third quarter, Circle increased by $915 million to take the top spot, Ripple's RLUSD increased by $765.3 million to rank second, and United Stables increased by $474.2 million to rank third. Notably, RLUSD accounts for only 0.8% of the total stablecoin supply but contributed the second-highest quarterly growth, with its market cap exceeding $2.4 billion, representing a monthly increase of over 50%. In contrast, USDT, which holds 61% of the supply, saw its market cap decrease by $207.7 million this quarter, failing to enter the top ten in growth.

Solana on-chain minting remains active. According to SolanaFloor monitoring, Circle has minted approximately 2.75 billion USDC on the Solana network over the past 7 days. On October 1, Circle's USDC Treasury address minted 250 million tokens in a single day on Solana, with a cumulative total of 750 million minted within 24 hours. Since the beginning of 2026, Circle has cumulatively minted approximately $9.88 billion worth of USDC on Solana.

Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Developments. Visa announced that Lloyds Banking Group completed a pilot for cross-border stablecoin settlements worth approximately $750,000, with funds arriving within about one hour, including weekends, testing cross-chain interoperability. In Hong Kong, HSBC disclosed research results on its HKD stablecoin "HSBC RedCoin," showing that 74% of respondents recognized at least one use case for stablecoins, while 26% mistakenly believed that stablecoins are issued by the government. The European Central Bank continues to monitor the mismatch risks between stablecoin redemptions and reserve asset settlements.

Structural Signals: The total market capitalization of stablecoins remains above $300 billion, but growth momentum is shifting from USDT to more compliant and institutionally adopted variants such as USDC and RLUSD. RLUSD contributed the second-highest quarterly growth with a 0.8% supply share, reflecting rising market demand for regulated stablecoins.

II. Global Asset Performance

1. Equity Markets: S&P 500 Breaks 7,800 for the First Time, Nasdaq Hits New High

From September 30 to October 6, U.S. stocks continued to strengthen, boosted by cooling PCE data, weaker non-farm payrolls, and falling U.S. Treasury yields, with both the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching record highs.

Market Close on Tuesday, October 6: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 253.38 points to close at 51,521.28, a gain of 0.49%; the S&P 500 Index rose 44.98 points to close at 7,818.93, a gain of 0.58%, closing above 7,800 for the first time; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 122.48 points to close at 27,599.79, a gain of 0.45%, setting a new closing record for the second consecutive day.

The core driver this week was the decline in U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by more than 4 basis points to 5.262%, and the 30-year yield fell by more than 3 basis points to 5.631%, providing valuation support for interest-rate-sensitive tech stocks. In terms of sectors, ten of the eleven major S&P 500 sectors rose while one fell. The Utilities sector led gains with a 3.01% increase, the Consumer Discretionary sector rose 1.39%, and only the Healthcare sector dipped slightly by 0.16%.

In terms of individual stocks, chip stocks led the gains. Marvell Technology rose 5.8%, AMD gained nearly 3%, and Broadcom increased by 3.7%, as investors grew more optimistic about the prospects of chip manufacturers. Amazon rose nearly 2%, with most tech stocks closing higher. However, memory chip stocks bucked the trend with sharp declines; Seagate Technology fell over 9%, and SK Hynix dropped more than 6%.

For the week, the three major indices continued last week's rebound momentum. After the non-farm payrolls data was released on October 2, the Nasdaq 100 Index briefly hit a new historical record during trading, closing up 1% at 30,817.93 points. The S&P 500 Index climbed from around 7,651 points on September 30 to 7,818 points on October 6, a weekly gain of approximately 2.2%; the Nasdaq Composite rose from 26,861 points to 27,599 points, a weekly increase of about 2.7%.

Index	Weekly Change	Core Drivers	On-Chain Mapping
Nasdaq Composite	Approx. +2.5%~+3%	Decline in US Treasury yields + Chip stocks leading gains, hitting consecutive all-time highs	QQQON_USDT
S&P 500 Index	Approx. +2%~+2.5%	Cooling PCE + Weaker non-farm data, first close above 7,800 points	SPYON_USDT
Dow Jones Industrial Average	Approx. +1.5%~+2%	Supported by defensive sectors and industrial stocks, steady rise throughout the week	US30_USDT

Data Source: AP News, CNBC

2. Commodities: Geopolitical premium fluctuates sharply, oil prices on a "roller coaster"; gold and silver experience massive volatility after non-farm payrolls

From September 30 to October 6, the commodities market experienced significant volatility driven by both geopolitical factors and macroeconomic data. Crude oil underwent a "surge-plunge-rebound" roller-coaster ride, while precious metals saw sharp rises and falls following the release of non-farm payroll data.

Crude Oil: US-Iran negotiations fluctuate, Brent crude oscillates violently around $100. On September 29, the United States announced the release of 40 million barrels from its strategic reserve, and Saudi Arabia restarted its east-west pipeline. Expectations of supply recovery pushed WTI down 3.48% to close at $89.38 per barrel. On September 30, US-Iran talks reached a stalemate, causing oil prices to rebound. On October 1, Trump rejected Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and indicated potential increased pressure on Iran, leading WTI to rise 2.71% to close at $92.87 per barrel, and Brent to rise 4.37% to close at $102.31 per barrel. On October 2, France called for coordinated G7 action to curb oil prices, causing prices to plunge; WTI fell more than 5% at one point, dropping below $90, while Brent touched $98.72 per barrel. As of October 5, WTI was quoted at $90.74 per barrel, and Brent at $102.31 per barrel.

Gold: Massive volatility after non-farm payrolls, 4200 gained and lost. Gold saw drastic movements this week. On Sep 30, spot gold fell 0.55% to close at $4,159/oz, with a cumulative decline of 6.31% in September. After the release of non-farm data on Oct 2, spot gold rapidly surged by over $40, hitting a daily high of $4,226.66/oz, but then plunged more than $100 from the peak, setting a new daily low of $4,124.97/oz. As of Oct 3, gold prices fluctuated around $4,150.

Silver: Breaks below the $60 mark, halving from the year-to-date high. Silver's decline is significantly larger than gold's. On October 1, spot silver fell below $60/oz during trading, closing at $59.935/oz, which is half of the January 2026 high of approximately $121.65/oz. It briefly rebounded to $62.078/oz after the non-farm payrolls report, then dropped sharply to $59.677/oz. Silver is simultaneously affected by deleveraging in precious metals and sentiment in industrial metals, with volatility far exceeding that of gold.

Asset	Weekly Performance	Key Events	On-Chain Mapping
WTI Crude Oil	$89 – $93 /barrel	US-Iran negotiations fluctuate, oil prices on a "roller coaster," briefly losing the $90 level	OIL(WTI)USDT
Brent Crude Oil	$98 – $104 /barrel	Surged to $102.31 on October 1, plunged to $98.72 on October 2	OIL(BRENT)USDT
Gold	$4124 – $4227 /oz	Surged over $40 after non-farm payrolls, then plummeted over $100, ending with massive volatility	GOLD(XAUT)USDT GOLD(PAXG)USDT GOLD(XAUT)USDC GOLD(PAXG)USDC
Silver	$59.7 – $62.1 /oz	Breaks below the $64 mark, decline greater than gold	SILVER(XAG)USDT

Core Logic: The pricing of commodities this week was alternately dominated by "geopolitics" and "macroeconomic data." Early in the week, expectations of supply recovery suppressed oil prices, but the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations later reignited geopolitical premiums. Meanwhile, non-farm payroll data became the "trigger point" for precious metals—a sharp drop in rate hike expectations briefly drove gold and silver prices up, but profit-taking and deleveraging pressure quickly pushed them back to their original levels.

3. Bond Market: Yields Retreat After Touching 24-Year Highs as Rate Hike Expectations Cool

This week, the US Treasury market experienced severe volatility characterized by a "surge and retreat." The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note briefly touched 5.34%, its highest level since April 2002; the 30-year yield reached 5.70%, also marking a new high since 2002. However, as non-farm payroll data came in significantly below expectations, rate hike expectations dropped sharply, causing yields to fall from their highs.

Early Week: Oil prices and inflation concerns drove Yield Rates to surge. On October 1, the 10-year US Treasury Yield Rate rose by 6 basis points to 5.34%, surpassing its 2007 peak; the 30-year rate climbed to 5.70%, reaching its highest level since June 2002. Drivers included Middle East conflicts pushing oil prices near $100 per barrel, supply pressure on Treasuries from expanding US fiscal deficits, and continued hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

October 2: Non-farm payrolls data triggered a reversal in expectations. September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, with a combined downward revision of 60,000 for July and August. Following the data release, the probability of an October rate hike plummeted from 24% to less than 25%. The 10-year Yield Rate retreated from its high of 5.34% to close at 5.243%.

Oct 5-6: The ISM Services PMI reinforced expectations of "higher for longer" interest rates, pushing yield rates higher again. The September ISM Services PMI came in at 54.9, with the Prices Paid Index rising to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. Long-end yield rates rose in response—the 30-year yield briefly broke through 5.70%, and the 10-year yield touched near 5.35%. Subsequently, as yield rates hit multi-year highs, selling pressure eased temporarily; the 10-year yield fell back to 5.286%, the 30-year yield closed at 5.659%, and the 2-year yield closed at 4.80%.

MEXC's tokenized Treasury bond product TLTON/USDT (corresponding to the TLT ETF) provides users with a convenient channel to trade expectations for long-end US Treasury yield rates on a weekly basis. In addition, international ETF token trading pairs such as EEMON/USDT, EFAON/USDT, and INDAON/USDT have also been listed on the platform.

Instrument	Weekly Change	Key Drivers
2-Year US Treasury Yield Rate	4.90% – 4.95% (+10~15BP)	Rising rate hike expectations; short-end most sensitive to policy path
10-Year US Treasury Yield Rate	5.10% – 5.25% (+10~15BP)	PMI beat expectations + high oil prices + weak auction, hitting new highs since 2007
30-Year US Treasury Yield Rate	5.40% – 5.50% (+5~10BP)	Long-end supply pressure + inflation expectations, maintaining highs since 2004

Core Logic: The core contradiction in bond market pricing this week is the tug-of-war between "sticky inflation" and "weakening employment." The ISM Services Price Index hit a four-year high, reinforcing expectations of "higher for longer" interest rates; however, non-farm payrolls fell significantly short of expectations, reducing the urgency for consecutive rate hikes. UBS pointed out in its research report that current market pricing implies nearly four more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve by the end of next year, which is "too aggressive"—the three-month annualized rate of core PCE in August was only 2.05%, the lowest since July 2024, indicating that the inflation trend is still improving. Market focus has shifted to the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes released on October 8; if they reveal a dovish faction within the committee, it may further confirm the current repricing of interest rate expectations.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key Themes

Theme 1: Non-Farm Payrolls "Miss" – 29,000 Jobs Shatter Rate Hike Expectations, But Bond Market "Disobeys"

The September non-farm payroll data released on October 2 became the core turning point for the market this week.

Key Data Highlights:

New Non-Farm Payrolls: 29,000 (expected 90,000), previous value revised down from 162,000 to 133,000
Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (previous 4.1%)
Combined downward revision for July and August: 60,000

The market reaction showed a rare "two-phase" trend. In the first hour after the data release, the market traded on traditional logic: expectations of rate hikes cooled, U.S. Treasury yields plunged, and Gold and Bitcoin surged. However, in the second hour, the market completely reversed—Gold gave back all gains and turned negative, U.S. Treasury yields made a V-shaped rebound, with the 10-year yield rising from 5.22% to 5.27%.

Why did the “good news” last only one hour? The root cause lies in the fact that the bond market has decoupled from the Federal Reserve's pricing framework. Persistent high fiscal deficits in the US, massive Treasury supply, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have “locked” long-term interest rates due to multiple real-world factors. Even with weakening employment and a significant drop in the probability of rate hikes, long-term yields remain stubbornly high. For crypto assets, this means real interest rates are stickier than expected, and the valuation pressure on BTC has not truly eased despite the weaker non-farm payroll data.

Topic 2: Ethereum “Glamsterdam” Testnet Activation – L1 Scaling Enters Verification Phase

On October 6, Ethereum's next major upgrade, “Glamsterdam,” was officially activated on the Sepolia Testnet, marking the most critical public verification before its mainnet launch.

Core Upgrade Content:

EIP-7732 (ePBS): Integrates proposer-builder separation into the protocol layer, splits consensus validation from execution validation, and allocates more time for validators to verify execution payloads
EIP-7928 (BALs): Introduces block-level access lists to record accounts and storage locations accessed within a block, enabling clients to read state and validate transactions in parallel
Gas Pricing Mechanism Adjustment: More accurately reflects execution costs and state growth

Performance Goals: The Ethereum Foundation has set a post-upgrade target lower bound of 200 million Gas. Compared to the current Gas limit of approximately 60 million, network throughput is expected to increase significantly. Developers will finalize the mainnet launch schedule after determining the activation time on the Hoodi testnet.

Impact on Crypto Assets: The Sepolia activation of Glamsterdam itself does not directly affect the ETH price, but it marks that Ethereum's Layer 1 scaling roadmap has entered a substantive validation phase. If testing proceeds smoothly and the mainnet launches as scheduled in Q4 2026, it will improve Ethereum's positioning in L1 performance competition. Vitalik Buterin also revealed that the next upgrade after Glamsterdam, Hegotá, may be Ethereum's "last traditional fork," after which it will shift to fundamental architectural changes such as recursive STARKs and automated formal verification.

Topic 3: ETF Funds "Stand Alone" – IBIT Carries the Load, While Other ETFs See Net Outflows of $240 Million

This week, inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs plummeted from $2.4 billion last week to $82.9 million, with funds highly concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT.

Key Data: For the week ending October 3, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $82.9 million. IBIT absorbed about $292 million from Monday to Thursday, with a single-day inflow of $195.6 million on October 1. However, excluding IBIT, the remaining ETFs experienced a combined net outflow of approximately $240.8 million. Fidelity's FBTC recorded a cumulative weekly net outflow of about $167.9 million, while Grayscale's GBTC saw a net outflow of $54.6 million.

How to Interpret? The concentration of funds in IBIT reflects BlackRock's structural advantages in ETF distribution channels and brand strength, rather than a broad recovery in overall institutional demand. As prices rebounded from $82,500 to $87,000, most ETF products other than IBIT continued to see net redemptions—this divergence indicates that some institutional investors are using the rebound to reduce their holdings, rather than adding positions trend-wise. Meanwhile, Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $82,000 to $113,000, citing factors such as ETF inflows and an improved regulatory environment. Divergence among institutions is widening.

4. Market Hotspot Word Cloud

Rank	Keyword	Core Driver	On-Chain Mapping
1	Non-farm payrolls "miss": only +29k	Far below the expected 90k; July-August revised down by a total of 60k; unemployment rate rose to 4.2%	BTC/USDT
2	Probability of October rate hike drops below 25%	Weaker non-farm data combined with cooling PCE; market has largely "priced out" an October rate hike	BTC/USDT, TLTON/USDT
3	BTC fails to break through $87,000	Touched $87,146 during the week, but strong resistance at $87,400 led to a pullback to around $85,500	BTC/USDT
4	ETF inflows slow to $103 million	IBIT alone supported ~$158 million; other ETFs saw net outflows overall, intensifying divergence	BTC/USDT
5	Ethereum Glamsterdam testnet activated	Sepolia testnet activated on Oct 6; L1 scaling enters verification phase	ETH/USDT
6	XRP tops trading volume in South Korea	Driven by active local trading in South Korea; price maintained in the $1.45–$1.52 range	XRP/USDT

5. Key Focus for the Coming Week

Economic Calendar (Oct 7–Oct 13, SGT)

Date	Event/Indicator	Market Impact	Tokenized Assets
Oct 8, 02:00	FRS September FOMC Meeting Minutes	Key event! The market is watching how firmly the committee sticks to its guidance of "one more rate hike this year" and the extent of dovish sentiment within. A dovish tone will confirm the current repricing of interest rate expectations; a hawkish tone may leave room for repricing an October rate hike.	BTC/USDT, TLTON/USDT
Oct 14, 20:30	US September CPI Inflation Data	One of the most important inflation indicators for the FRS. Following weaker non-farm payrolls, the direction of CPI will determine the market's judgment on whether inflation is continuing to improve, directly impacting expectations for the October FOMC meeting.	BTC/USDT, TLTON/USD
Ongoing Tracking	Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows	Inflows slowed to $103 million last week; can IBIT's dominant position change?	BTC/USDT
Ongoing Tracking	BTC Resistance at $87,400	Fourth failed attempt since Sep 21. A breakout targets $90,000–$93,700; if rejected, it may retest $82,500.	BTC/USDT
Ongoing Tracking	US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Situation	Oil price trends determine the direction of inflation expectations; geopolitical premium remains.	OIL(WTI)USDT, OIL(BRENT)USDT

Data Preview: The core focus of the week lies in the tone of the FRS September meeting minutes (Oct 8). In September, the FRS unanimously voted to raise interest rates, but the weak non-farm payrolls and soft PCE data released after the meeting have partially "outdated" the minutes. The market will closely watch: whether the minutes reveal a meaningful dovish faction within the committee regarding further rate hikes; the degree of adherence to the guidance of "one more rate hike this year"; and discussions on the pass-through of oil prices to inflation. If the minutes confirm the market's current dovish pricing, it may prolong the weakening of US Treasury yields and the US dollar, providing support for BTC; if the tone is significantly hawkish, it may leave room for repricing an October rate hike, suppressing risk assets.

VI. Platform Updates

1. MEXC Adds 1,000 BTC to Guardian Fund, User Protection Reserve Reaches 100M USDT + 2,000 BTC

On October 1, MEXC announced an additional allocation of 1,000 BTC to its Guardian Fund, marking the second significant BTC allocation to the fund this year. Following this increase, the Guardian Fund reserve totals 100 million USDT and 2,000 BTC, further strengthening user asset protection.

In May, MEXC committed to expanding the Guardian Fund from $100 million to $500 million within two years. This addition continues that strategy, with MEXC stating that user protection is viewed as a continuously strengthened system rather than a one-time reserve. The fund's holdings are verifiable on-chain via public wallet addresses, allowing users to independently verify the reserves.

MEXC CEO Vugar Usi stated, "Security and user protection are not one-time investments, but ongoing commitments. The risks faced by digital asset platforms are constantly evolving, and the resources behind user protection must also develop accordingly."

2. MEXC Lists Doppler Finance (XDP) for the First Time, Launching 40,000 USDT Token Airdrop+ Event

On October 1, MEXC listed Doppler Finance (XDP) in the Innovation Zone and opened the XDP/USDT trading pair.

Doppler Finance is dedicated to building infrastructure for tokenized capital markets, covering yield, collateral utility, and tokenized real-world assets. Its tech stack combines regulated custody, proof of reserves, and rigorously audited strategies, aiming for security, transparency, and scalability.

To celebrate the launch, MEXC introduces the XDP Airdrop+ Event with a total prize pool of 40,000 USDT. The event runs from Oct 1, 14:00 to Oct 8, 14:00 (UTC+8). Users need to click "Register Now" and complete specified tasks to participate in the share.

3. MEXC Supports Base and Zilliqa (ZIL) Network Upgrades

This week, MEXC released two announcements regarding network upgrade support:

Base Network Upgrade: The Base network will undergo an upgrade on Oct 1, 02:00 (UTC+8). MEXC will suspend deposits and withdrawals on the Base network starting from 01:00 on Oct 1. Token trading on the Base network will remain unaffected during the upgrade. Deposit and withdrawal services will resume after the network upgrade is completed.

Zilliqa (ZIL) Network Upgrade: The ZIL network will undergo an upgrade on Oct 5, 10:00 (UTC). MEXC will suspend ZIL deposits and withdrawals starting from 09:30 on Oct 5. ZIL trading will remain unaffected, and this upgrade will not result in a hard fork.

Disclaimer: This report is for research reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and geopolitical events as well as macroeconomic changes may significantly impact the market. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance. Any platform products or trading pairs mentioned in this report are presented as objective data and do not constitute recommendations to buy or sell.