Bitcoin’s 4-Year Moving Average Shows Where The Market Bottom Lies Here

Crypto pundit Adam Livingston has pointed to Bitcoin’s 4-year moving average, which offers insights into where the leading crypto is likely to bottom in this bear market. This comes as BTC extends its decline and is now at risk of falling to the February 2026 low of $60,000. 

Pundit Points To Bitcoin’s 4-Year Moving Average For Potential Bottom

In an X post, Livingston noted that Bitcoin’s 4-year moving average is right at $60,000 and that Bitcoin is only 22.75% above this moving average. He further remarked that historically, only about 18.5% of valid days had a lower deviation.  He added that about 81.5% of days were more expensive relative to the 4-year MA. 

Basically, the crypto pundit suggested that this 4-year moving average could mark the Bitcoin bottom in this cycle. Livingston noted that buying BTC when it was in the same cheap percentile band relative to the 4-year MA would have turned every $10,000 deployed into about $56,600, compared with about $40,200 from a daily DCA over the same window. He added that BTC at today’s 4-year MA percentile has historically been a high-quality accumulation zone. 

As such, Livingston suggested that it may be a good bet to start accumulating Bitcoin in this range, with $60,000 likely to serve as the bottom. It is worth noting that his comment comes as BTC appears set to drop back to $60,000. The leading crypto has witnessed a massive sell-off since the start of the week, falling from as high as $71,000. 

However, crypto analyst Bluntz predicted that Bitcoin would drop below $60,000 on this decline. He alluded to BTC’s daily close, indicating that there was no way that the leading crypto wouldn’t sweep $58,000. 

BTC In A Vulnerable Position

In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that the breakdown below $72,000 has put Bitcoin in a vulnerable position and that, based on the MVRV pricing bands, the next major area of support sits between $54,000 and $50,000. As such, BTC still risks dropping to as low as $50,000 in this market cycle. 

In another X post, Martinez pointed out how Bitcoin is facing significant selling pressure with 54,000 BTC moved to exchanges over the past week. He noted that this spike in available supply has increased the short-term selling pressure, which has driven the price to the lower $60,000. BTC is also facing selling pressure from the Bitcoin ETFs, which are currently on a 13-day streak of net outflows. 

At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading at around $63,600, down over 5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.