Glassnode Signals Deepening BTC Bear Market As Losses Surge And ETF Resistance Caps Recovery

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode released its latest analysis, highlighting that Bitcoin’s recent decline has deepened a broader market pullback, with price falling about 13% over seven days and returning to a region that analysts view as typical of a bear-market structure. The research firm noted that the move has pushed the asset back toward the middle of the range defined by realized price metrics, while the short-term holder cost basis has slipped below the True Market Mean for the first time since January 2022. 

In Glassnode’s view, that combination points to a later-stage bear market rather than the early phase of a new uptrend. The report added that the recent rally toward $82,000 did not show the kind of follow-through usually seen in a structural regime shift, because longer-horizon profit and loss readings never confirmed the strength implied by the short-term move.

The macro backdrop has also become less supportive. Glassnode pointed to firmer U.S. labor data, rising Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar as signs that financial conditions are tightening rather than easing. Against that setting, Bitcoin has underperformed other risk assets, the firm said, with spot ETF flows turning negative and institutional demand weakening. In the analysts’ assessment, the market is now dealing with a combination of profit-taking, loss realization, and reduced appetite for fresh exposure. The result is a market that remains sensitive to any additional pressure from macro data, especially with the next labor-market release seen as an important near-term checkpoint.

Market Structure Weakens as Buyers Lose Control

Glassnode noted that the latest price drop has pulled Bitcoin back into a zone where bear-market dynamics remain dominant. The True Market Mean, which reflects the cost basis of actively transacted supply, was identified as a key level that the market failed to hold. The firm said Bitcoin’s inability to stay above that line suggests the previous advance lacked the internal strength needed to confirm a durable trend reversal.

The report also highlighted a decline in the 7-day realized profit/loss ratio. According to Glassnode, that measure fell sharply from a recent peak near 3.16 to 0.29, indicating that losses are now being realized far more than gains. The analysts said the move resembles the panic phase seen earlier in the year, while the 90-day reading never rose enough to indicate a full bull-market transition. In practical terms, Glassnode argued, that means the rally into the low $80,000 area looked more like a bear-market bounce than a decisive recovery.

The pressure on newer buyers has increased as well. Glassnode said the current price zone is now close to the lower edge of the supply band accumulated since February, where many recent entrants are sitting on shrinking unrealized gains or moving into losses. Those who bought near the local top between roughly $78,000 and $82,000 are now under the most strain. The firm said whether that group holds or sells will matter for the next phase of the market, because their behavior will help determine whether demand can absorb the latest wave of distribution.

Losses Accelerate Across Holder Groups

Glassnode said total realized losses have risen to about $1.35 billion per day, a level that shows selling pressure is no longer confined to short-term traders. Of that amount, around $770 million per day is coming from long-term holders, which the firm interpreted as evidence that some cycle-top buyers are beginning to capitulate. The remaining losses are being taken by newer participants who accumulated during the 2026 advance and are now forced to exit below their entry levels.

The analysts said this kind of sequence is often seen late in a bear market, when coins move from stronger hands to weaker ones at progressively lower prices. Even so, Glassnode cautioned that the process appears incomplete. The report suggested that the market is still working through a supply redistribution phase rather than approaching a fully washed-out bottom.

Beyond on-chain flows, the spot market has also turned weaker. Glassnode noted that the 7-day spot volume delta has moved clearly negative and reached its weakest point since the February selloff. That shift means aggressive sellers have regained control of the order books after a period in which spot buyers were helping drive the market higher. The firm said the recent advance from the mid-$60,000 area toward $80,000 was supported by spot accumulation, but that demand has now faded.

The ETF picture looks similarly fragile. Glassnode said Bitcoin’s rebound stalled almost exactly around the estimated U.S. spot ETF cost basis near $83,000. That level, which once acted as support, has now become resistance, according to the report. The firm added that many ETF investors who were previously underwater likely used the rebound to reduce exposure or exit near breakeven. Three weeks of net outflows, which Glassnode said amounted to $4.21 billion, reinforce the view that institutions are de-risking rather than adding to positions.

Options, Leverage, and Positioning Remain Cautious

Glassnode also said derivatives markets are reflecting a cautious mood rather than outright panic. Implied volatility has continued to drift lower across the curve, even after the recent breakdown in spot prices. At the same time, the gap between implied and realized volatility has widened, showing that options traders are still pricing in more future movement than the market has recently delivered. The firm said that usually points to a market willing to pay for protection, but not yet in full capitulation mode.

Skew remains tilted toward puts, the analysts noted, meaning downside protection is still more expensive than upside exposure. However, Glassnode said the latest slide did not trigger a sharp additional jump in hedging demand. That suggests traders are already positioned defensively and have not yet rushed into a new wave of protection buying.

Dealer positioning adds another layer of fragility. Glassnode said Bitcoin is currently trading near a large negative gamma zone, where hedging activity can intensify short-term swings. In such conditions, price moves can be amplified as market makers adjust exposure in the direction of market momentum. The report also said recent taker flow has leaned toward protection, with put buying dominating trading activity over the past week.

On the leverage side, the latest decline forced more than $400 million in long liquidations. Glassnode said the size of the wipeout was significant, though still smaller than the major deleveraging events seen in late 2025 and early 2026. That, in the firm’s view, suggests leverage had not become as stretched as in earlier episodes. The key question now is whether spot buyers return quickly enough to absorb the forced selling.

Glassnode’s overall conclusion was that Bitcoin remains in a vulnerable position. The firm said weakness is visible across profitability, holder behavior, ETF flows, spot demand, and derivatives positioning. Until demand improves and selling pressure eases, the report suggested the market may continue to trade within a broader bear-market framework, with consolidation and further downside both still in play.

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