BN’s conviction in Johor a tad less persuasive now, says analyst

PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional’s (BN) initial show of confidence in securing a big victory in the Johor polls seems a little less convincing now given its change of tone and acceptance of PAS’s support, an analyst said.

The projection of a smaller tally of only 35 seats — down from its original goal of up to 42 — is especially telling, according to Global Asia Consulting’s Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri.

It now considers itself the underdog heading into the polls, Zaharuddin pointed out. “Its confidence is being tested,” he told FMT.

He noted that having won 40 seats in 2022, Johor Umno was initially gunning for at least 42 this time, but its internal survey has yielded a less optimistic picture. It will lose its two-thirds majority if it fails to win at least 38.

“The question is whether this change in narrative is a strategy to lower public expectations or a tacit admission that BN is losing momentum,” he said.

On Sunday, Onn Hafiz said BN was approaching the Johor polls as the underdog despite his initial confidence at retaining all 40 seats it won four years ago.

That same day, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man ordered all party members and supporters to vote for BN in seats not contested by Perikatan Nasional.

While BN deputy chairman Mohamad Hasan welcomed PAS’s directive, he said the coalition must not rest on its laurels and bank on the goodwill of other parties to win.

Two days ago, two PAS division leaders attended a BN event in Batu Pahat. In reaction, Onn Hafiz said he was “touched” by the show of support.

PAS and Umno have shared a tumultuous relationship marked by public spats between top leaders of the two parties. In May, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang traded barbs over the question of sincerity in political alliances.

During that exchange, Zahid accused PAS of having a “DNA of betrayal”, to which Hadi retorted that Umno was more synonymous with betrayal than the Islamic party.

Tougher-than-expected competition 

Zaharuddin said PAS’s support for BN in certain seats could be perceived as a sign that the going may not be as easy for the Umno-led coalition.

“If BN is truly confident about its strength, there would be no need to state appreciation for PAS’s support so openly,” he added.

The criticisms leveled by former Umno supreme council member Puad Zarkashi also shows that BN faces the risk of being shunned by young voters for fielding old candidates who offer nothing fresh, he added.

Zaharuddin said youths will not be drawn by the narrative of stability if it does not come with a clear agenda on jobs, salaries, housing and Johor’s economic future.

BN’s continued cooperation with DAP at the federal level could also deter the more traditional Umno supporters as well as conservative voters, over whom PAS still holds sway, he said.

“Pakatan Harapan could wrest several urban, semi-urban and mixed seats if the coalition and their candidates offer a more convincing economic narrative.

“BN still has the machinery and its base of supporters, but the political reality is forcing them to ditch grand rhetoric to fight a defensive battle on the ground,” Zaharuddin added.