XRP price analysis: Will $1 support hold as ETF flows slow?

XRP is trading near $1.04 as buyers defend the $1 level while ETF flows, whale withdrawals and weak monthly momentum shape the next move.

XRP price data showed the token trading near $1.04 on July 1. XRP fell 0.48% in the past 24 hours and 5.31% over seven days. The token also lost 20.29% over the past month and 53.24% over the past year, showing that the broader downtrend remains active.

The 24-hour range stayed tight between $1.03 and $1.05. XRP ranked sixth by market value, with a market capitalization near $64.65 billion and daily trading volume above $1.6 billion. The narrow range shows that sellers still pressure the market, but buyers have not given up the $1 support level.

XRP had already been holding near $1 while daily active addresses rose and ETF inflows stayed positive. That earlier setup has not changed much. Price remains weak, but the market still has pockets of demand.

The key level remains simple. XRP needs to hold $1 to avoid a deeper technical breakdown. A recovery above $1.08 and $1.10 would be the first sign of short-term strength, while a move below $1 could open the path toward $0.85 and $0.70.

XRP ETF demand stays positive despite outflow

XRP spot ETF data showed one daily outflow on June 30, with net withdrawals of $2.83 million (per SoSoValue data). It was the only outflow since June 3, while visible daily entries before it were positive or flat. That means the latest red day did not erase the broader monthly trend.

June still ended with $59.46 million in total net inflows, bringing cumulative net inflows to $1.48 billion. Strong daily inflows of $15.63 million on June 26 and $15.34 million on June 29 more than offset the June 30 outflow. This shows that fund demand remained present even as XRP price action stayed weak.

However, total net assets fell to $944.06 million on June 30 from $971.63 million on June 29. That drop suggests XRP’s falling price reduced ETF asset value even as monthly flows stayed positive. In simple terms, investors added money across the month, but price weakness still lowered the value of holdings.

Previously, crypto.news reported that XRP ETFs had crossed $1 billion in cumulative inflows by mid-December and passed $1.5 billion by early March 2026 before momentum slowed. The same report said ETF assets had fallen back toward $1 billion by mid-2026 as price declines reduced fund value.

Whale withdrawals and open interest reset

A CryptoQuant analysis by Amr Taha showed that whale-sized XRP withdrawals became more dominant on Coinbase in the second half of June. Transfers above 1 million XRP rose from about 10% of total outflow value on June 16 to 25.7% by July 1.

Binance showed a steadier but larger whale footprint. XRP withdrawals above 1 million XRP stayed near half of total outflow value and ended at 49.6%. The data does not prove where the coins moved, but it shows large holders are taking a bigger role in XRP exchange outflows.

Derivatives data also points to a cleaner market structure. Open interest has fallen from a $1.3 billion peak to below $150 million, removing much of the leverage built during earlier rallies. Long liquidations jumped 832% above their three-month average, with $6.7 million flushed in a single candle.

That reset can reduce forced selling after crowded long positions unwind. It does not create a recovery by itself, but it can make the next move less dependent on leverage. Traders now need spot buyers and ETF demand to support any bounce.

RSI, RLUSD and XRP Ledger activity shape outlook

Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO said XRP’s monthly RSI has entered its most oversold zone in history and is now flattening. “Sometimes the strongest bullish signals are born when the chart looks its weakest,” the analyst wrote. He also said XRP remains in macro compression until it breaks the $1.65 level.

The $1.65 level is far above current price, so it remains a medium-term marker rather than an immediate target. For now, the closer levels matter more. XRP needs to defend $1, reclaim $1.08 to $1.10 and then challenge $1.20 before the chart can show a stronger recovery attempt.

Earlier today, crypto.news reported that Ripple-backed Evernorth said RLUSD has routed more than $2.5 billion through XRP Ledger pairs since launch. The RLUSD/XRP pair cleared about $900 million in six months, while RLUSD supply on XRP Ledger grew to about $800 million by late June.

That activity supports XRP Ledger usage, but it has not yet changed XRP’s price trend. XRP remains near a key decision area, with $1 as the main support and $0.85 and $0.70 as lower zones if the level breaks.