Galaxy Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 50% as Senate Clock Ticks

Crypto lobbyists have completed over 325,000 calls and emails to US congressmen, urging them to pass the CLARITY Act at the earliest opportunity. Despite the mounting pressure, the odds of the bill becoming law have dipped, with pundits pointing to the absence of a floor date as the main hurdle.

Proponents ramp up pressure for CLARITY Act

Advocates of the CLARITY Act have intensified their efforts to force the US Senate to pass the bill into law. According to data from Stand With Crypto, advocates have logged over 325,000 calls and emails to Congress in 2026, seeking a speedy passage for the bill.

The nonprofit disclosed that nearly 3 million people in the US have joined the race to push the CLARITY Act over the finish line. The surge in calls and emails to congressmen comes as it is certain that the bill will not pass ahead of America’s 250th birthday, a target date long eyed by the White House.

If passed into law, the CLARITY Act will create a clearer legal framework for the regulation of crypto assets in the US. After passing the House in 2025 and advancing through the Senate Banking Committee, the bill has stalled in the US Senate, with a floor vote remaining unscheduled.

Despite the missed target, pro-crypto Senators are rippling with confidence that a final draft will be published by the end of the week, teeing up a full push for a floor vote after recess. Previously, over 200 crypto service providers and advocates penned a letter to Congress to accelerate the legislative process for the CLARITY Act.

Furthermore, Senator Cynthia Lummis has urged her colleagues to speed up CLARITY Act passage, pointing to a raft of benefits for the US. Lummis noted that passing the bill will make the US the undisputed global leader in digital assets, preventing capital and talent flight to other jurisdictions.

Europe has its framework. The UK has its framework. The UAE has its framework. The United States will have the CLARITY Act,” wrote Lummis on X.

Galaxy cuts odds for CLARITY Act passage 

Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, has reduced the chances of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to a coin flip. In a note, Thorn disclosed that the financial service firm has slashed its odds to 50%, a 10% reduction from its previous estimate of 60%.

“We are lowering our estimate that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% on June 5,” wrote Thorn.

For Galaxy Digital, a 50-50 chance for the CLARITY Act is still favorable, judging by its size and impact. Meanwhile, odds for the CLARITY Act to pass before 2027 have tanked below 50% on prediction marketplaces Kalshi and Polymarket.

Source: Kalshi

Galaxy Digital clarified that the reduced odds have little to do with the substance of the bill, pointing fingers at a busy Senate calendar. Thorne also noted that the “runway is quickly declining” for the bill that requires a merged Banking-Agriculture text, floor debate, a potential amendment process, and House Action.