MercadoLibre Stock Hits a Four-Year Revenue High While Shares Are Down 17% in 2026

Key Takeaways for MercadoLibre Stock as of June 2026

• Analysts rate MercadoLibre stock 15 Buys / 5 Outperforms / 4 Holds with a street mean target of $2,217, implying 36% upside from the current price of $1,629.
• TIKR’s mid-case model values MercadoLibre at $8,585 by December 2034, implying 425% total return from current levels, or 44% annualized.
• MercadoLibre posted Q1 2026 revenue of $8.85 billion, up 49% year over year, the fastest growth rate in four years, driven by a free shipping threshold cut in Brazil that is now structurally embedded in the platform.

MercadoLibre stock trades 36% below the street mean target while posting its best revenue growth in four years. See the full analyst estimate table on TIKR for free →

MercadoLibre Stock Posts Fastest Revenue Growth in Four Years, and the Market Is Pricing the Wrong Line Item

MercadoLibre (MELI) delivered Q1 2026 revenue of $8.85 billion, up 49% year over year, the strongest growth rate since Q2 2022, even as net income fell 16% to $417 million and shares slid on the headline profit miss.

The compression is deliberate, and management said so plainly.

CFO Martín de los Santos told investors on the Q1 earnings call: “We are not optimizing for short-term margin. We are making investments based on the results that we’re seeing and the results are very positive.”

The Brazil free shipping decision is the engine behind the revenue number, and management confirmed the policy is permanent, with Leandro Cuccioli, SVP of investor relations, calling it “here to stay” following the quarter.

Brazil delivered unique buyers up 32% year over year, the fastest pace in five years, and items sold up 56%, more than double the growth rate recorded before the threshold cut.

The logistics network absorbed that volume with improving economics, not deteriorating ones, as cost per shipment fell 17% year over year in local currency while shipping volume surged.

Mercado Pago, the company’s fintech arm, matched the commerce acceleration with net revenue of $4 billion in Q1, up 51%, as monthly active users reached 83 million, up 29%.

The credit card book more than doubled to $6.6 billion year over year, with 2.7 million new cards issued, and CEO Ariel Szarfsztejn outlined the long-term credit card opportunity at “30, 40, 50 times larger” than its current size.

MercadoLibre also deployed large language models in search across Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina in Q1, delivering higher conversion rates, stronger ad returns, and improved discovery engagement.

Track MercadoLibre stock’s credit portfolio growth and Q2 2026 revenue estimates as the next quarter approaches on TIKR for free →

Is MercadoLibre Stock Undervalued in 2026? The Street Targets $2,217 While Shares Sit at $1,629

Of the 24 analysts covering MercadoLibre stock, 15 rate it a Buy, 5 rate it an Outperform, and 4 rate it a Hold, a wall of conviction that has held firm through months of share-price pressure.

The street mean target of $2,217 implies 36% upside from the current price of $1,629, and the bull camp’s high target of $2,800 implies 72% upside for those who believe margin recovery arrives ahead of consensus timing.

Analysts project Q2 2026 revenue of $9.65 billion, up 42% year over year, and Q3 2026 revenue of $10.28 billion, up 39%, a trajectory showing sustained acceleration rather than a one-quarter aberration from the Brazil policy change.

The Street’s central debate is not whether the top line holds but when the margin recovery begins, with consensus net income margins at 5% for Q2 2026 before gradual expansion through the back half of the year.

The one public dissent came from UBS, which downgraded MercadoLibre stock to Neutral in late April, arguing that margins will remain under pressure through 2027 and that the valuation was fair relative to long-term growth peers at that entry price, though the shares have declined further since, shifting the math.

Michael Burry’s purchase of MercadoLibre stock following the Q1 selloff, with a stated return target exceeding 15%, represents the contrarian read that the market prices the margin trough as structural rather than cyclical, creating an entry window that historically closes quickly once the profit trajectory reverses.

The next test is Q2 2026 revenue. If MercadoLibre delivers near the $9.65 billion consensus estimate, confirming the Brazil flywheel held through the take-rate adjustments management flagged for Q2, the case for the Buy camp tightens materially.

MercadoLibre Leads Sea Limited and Nu Holdings on Revenue Growth and the Gap Is Widening

MercadoLibre stock’s 49% revenue growth in Q1 2026 outpaced Sea Limited’s (SE) 47% and sat just below Nu Holdings’ (NU) 53% in the same period, placing MELI in the top tier of its emerging-market peer set at a moment when growth rates across the group are beginning to decelerate.

The deceleration picture is where MercadoLibre stock’s competitive position sharpens: consensus estimates project MELI revenue growth of 42% for Q2 2026, above Sea Limited’s estimated 35% and closing on Nu Holdings’ estimated 47%, and by Q3 2026 the gap between MELI at 39% and Sea Limited at 29% widens to ten percentage points.

Looking further out, MELI’s estimated revenue growth of 26% for Q1 2027 sits above Sea Limited’s 20% and ahead of Nu Holdings’ 23%, meaning MercadoLibre stock holds its growth premium across the peer set even as all three companies normalize from recent peaks.

TIKR’s $8,585 Mid-Case on MercadoLibre Stock Is Built on a Revenue CAGR the Q1 Data Already Supports

TIKR’s mid-case values MercadoLibre at $8,585 by December 2034, implying 425% total return from the current price of $1,629, or 44% annualized over the next 4.5 years.

The TIKR model assumes a revenue CAGR of around 24% through 2035, a figure that the Q1 2026 result of 49% growth and the consensus forward estimates of 42% and 39% for Q2 and Q3 sit well above, meaning the actual trajectory must decelerate substantially before the mid-case assumption becomes strained.

The net income margin assumption of around 9% represents meaningful expansion from the 5% Q1 margin, but MercadoLibre stock’s own 10-year historical net income margin of 18% and management’s explicit statement that margins can be dialed higher whenever investment intensity eases both support the reachability of that target.

MercadoLibre stock’s current price reflects the near-term P&L during a deliberate investment cycle, not the long-term compounding trajectory that the revenue data supports across four consecutive quarters of acceleration.

Explore the full TIKR valuation model for MELI and stress-test the revenue assumptions yourself on TIKR for free →

Should You Invest in MercadoLibre, Inc.?

The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.

Pull up MercadoLibre, Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.

You can build a free watchlist to track MercadoLibre, Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.

Access Professional Tools to Analyze MELI stock on TIKR for Free →

What is driving MercadoLibre stock’s revenue acceleration in 2026?

The Brazil free shipping threshold cut, live since mid-2024, drove 49% revenue growth in Q1 2026. Unique buyers in Brazil rose 32%, items sold rose 56%, and unit shipping costs fell 17% simultaneously, validating the unit economics of the program.