Bitcoin Price Rebound Hinges on $65K as Loss Supply Spikes

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin price remains weak after losing key long-term support.
• More than 8M to 10M BTC coins now sit underwater.
• Analysts say $65K is the level bulls need to reclaim.

The Bitcoin price dropped near weekly lows as traders watched whether the market was forming a bottom or preparing for deeper losses. BTC traded around $61,217 after losing key technical support levels. Analysts pointed to $65,000 as the level bulls need to reclaim for momentum to improve.

The latest decline came after Bitcoin faced rejection at the base of a macro triangle pattern and lost support at the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA). According to analyst Rekt Capital, this setup resembles earlier bear-market breakdowns seen in 2018 and 2022.

Bitcoin Price Loses Key Support as $65K Turns Critical

Bitcoin price has struggled to recover after sellers defended the $64,000 to $65,000 region. A double rejection near $64,200 pushed BTC back toward the lower range. This made $60,000 the next key support area for traders.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe says Bitcoin needs to break above $65,000 for bulls to regain control. He noted that this level previously acted as support after an earlier crash. It has now turned into resistance.

BTC/USD 1-Day Chart | Source: Michaël van de Poppe on X

A move above $65,000 could open the path toward $72,000-$74,000. However, a failure to reclaim that zone may keep Bitcoin exposed to another test of the recent lows.

The broader market backdrop has also added pressure. Investors were cautious ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index report. Risk assets often react strongly to inflation data because it affects rate expectations and liquidity conditions.

BTC Supply in Loss Raises Fresh Bottom Debate

The sharp rise in BTC supply loss has become one of the main signals analysts monitor. Glassnode’s supply-in-profit-and-loss chart shows a steep drop in profitable holdings since the cycle peak.

At the same time, the number of coins held at a loss has expanded quickly. This reflects how deep the recent reset has become. It also shows that many holders bought BTC at higher prices and are now sitting on unrealized losses.

BTC supply in loss | Source: CoinGlass

Historically, large increases in BTC supply have appeared near major stress points. Previous market bottoms often occurred when more than 10 million BTC were held at a price below their acquisition cost.

Bitcoin Price Faces Bearish Acceleration Risk

The Bitcoin price still faces technical risks because the macro breakdown has not been fully invalidated. According to market analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin must confirm the loss of support before entering another phase of bearish acceleration.

The loss of the 50-month EMA is important because it has historically marked major cycle stress. A confirmed breakdown below the macro triangle base would suggest that sellers still control the trend.

Bitcoin price loses the 50-month EMA | Source: Analyst Rekt Capital on X

The realized profit-and-loss ratio also reflects weak sentiment. The indicator has recently been in a lower range with rising realized losses. This indicates a cautious reaction from market players to the decline.

Still, bearish signals and bottom signals can appear at the same time. That is why the $65,000 level matters. A reclaim would weaken the breakdown case and improve short-term structure.

Without that recovery, Bitcoin may continue trading between panic and accumulation. The next major test is whether buyers can defend the $60,000 area while pushing Bitcoin back above $65,000.

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