Following the rejection at $82,000, Bitcoin price has seen a retracement of 5% on the weekly chart. On-chain indicators and technical setup show that BTC is forming a base around $77,000.
It is preparing for the next leg of the rally. However, if the bulls fail to gather enough strength, BTC could see a sharp drop to $54,000 from here.
On-chain indicators for Bitcoin continue to show strength. Popular analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin open interest surged to nearly $30 billion earlier this month. This is the highest since Jan. 29, as traders increased the leveraged long position.
Bitcoin open interest | Source: Ali Martinez, X
According to the analyst, Binance accounted for approximately $9.03 billion in Bitcoin open interest. It represents 73% than the second-largest exchange in open interest.
Martinez also pointed out at the funding rates noting that Bitcoin traders are positioning themselves for the upside. The BTC funding rates across the derivatives market have surged to 0.4, the highest in two months.
Bitcoin funding rates surge | Source: Ali Martinez, X
According to the analyst, elevated funding rates indicate that aggressive buyers currently dominate the Bitcoin derivatives market. It shows that traders are willing to pay a higher premium for leveraged long bets.
Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin price continues consolidating near the $76,900 support zone following its recent market reset. However, the sustained rise in funding rates suggests bullish sentiment remains strong among leveraged traders.
Analyst Ali Martinez noted that following the reset in Bitcoin market conditions, new long-term buying opportunities have emerged.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has recently fallen below its 180-day simple moving average. It hints a market cooling phase. As per Martinez, the Bitcoin price is currently trading in a high accumulation zone.
Historically, large market players have begun strategic long-term accumulation whenever the Bitcoin MVRV ratio slipped under its 180-DMA. The analyst noted that these dips consistently trigger buying behavior from major investors.
Bitcoin MVRV ratio | Source: Ali MArtinez, X
The analyst added that compressed short-term Bitcoin price action could persist under specific conditions. This stagnation typically lasts as long as the MVRV ratio remains below the 180-day trend line.
Ali Martinez stated that the Bitcoin price could rally toward the $94,850 level based on MVRV pricing band analysis. For this BTC needs to hold the key support zone near $72,960. This will help to maintain the current bullish structure.
However, Martinez warned that a breakdown below the $72,960 level could expose Bitcoin price to a deeper corrective move. It can push BTC lower to the realized price of $54,270.
Bitcoin MVRV pricing bands | Source: Ali Martinez
Crypto Patel said disciplined dollar cost averaging (DCA) during periods of market weakness has historically outperformed short-term market timing strategies. According to the analyst, long-term investors who consistently accumulate during downturns have generally delivered stronger returns.
Crypto Patel added that while Bitcoin price could still revisit levels below $60,000 based on historical price behavior. However, he cautioned traders of poor positioning decisions, while expecting greater downsides.
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