'Critical point' for consumer shortages flagged as 'emergency buffers fail simultaneously'

Renowned international security expert Robert Pape issued a dire warning on Sunday that an irreversible “critical point” had been reached in the U.S. war against Iran, one that risks sparking global shortages and economic disruptions on a scale not seen in decades.

“Two months ago, I warned that the Iran war was not simply creating an oil price spike. It was creating the conditions for shortages, supply disruptions, and eventually economic contraction,” Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, warned in an analysis published Sunday on his Substack. “That transition is now beginning.”

Among Iran’s first responses to the “unprovoked” attack from the United States and Israel was to close the Strait of Hormuz – a critical shipping waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil trade historically flowed – to U.S.-aligned vessels. Predictably, the strait’s partial closure sent oil prices skyrocketing.

With the war now stretching into its 78th day as of Sunday, the strait’s closure has finally exhausted worldwide “buffers” that have helped to slow the economic impact from disrupting trade through what is among the busiest shipping channels on earth, Pape warned.

“The critical point is no longer oil prices alone,” Pape wrote. “The world’s emergency buffers – inventories, reserves, subsidies, and logistical workarounds – are beginning to fail simultaneously.”

Signs of existing stockpiles or resources still in transit being exhausted have already reached the United States. The final shipment of oil from the Strait of Hormuz before its partial closure arrived in California earlier this month, and reporting suggests a major shortage of motor oil may be imminent.