MEXC Alpha Trader Research Weekly | Sticky PCE Inflation, Unresolved Bill Risks, and Persistent ETF Selling Pressure

Week 1 of June 2026
Reporting Period: May 27–June 2, 2026
Data Cutoff: June 2, 2026

Key Narrative

Over the past week, macroeconomic data and institutional fund flows dominated market direction.

On the macro front, US core PCE for April, released on May 28, came in at 3.2% year-on-year, above the market expectation of 3.0% and the previous reading of 3.1%. The data once again confirmed the persistence of inflation, pushing market pricing for further Federal Reserve tightening higher. According to CME FedWatch, as of June 2, the probability of a 25 bps rate hike by December rose to 42%, while the probability of a 50 bps hike increased to 12%. The 30-year US Treasury yield remained above 5.05%, while the US Dollar Index held firm above 105.5.

On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act is facing a complex political path in the Senate. After passing the Senate Banking Committee in mid-May with a bipartisan 15–9 vote, the bill has moved to full Senate review. However, it is now facing three major obstacles: Democratic demands for ethics provisions, banking-sector resistance to stablecoin interest-payment clauses, and a crowded congressional calendar. According to Polymarket, as of June 2, the probability that the bill will be signed into law in 2026 had fallen to 55%.

On the geopolitical front, US–Iran negotiations reportedly saw a major breakthrough on May 28, with representatives from both sides reaching agreement on a memorandum of understanding, pending final approval from the US president. The news triggered a sharp intraday sell-off in international oil prices. However, on the same day, US Central Command accused Iran of launching ballistic missiles toward Kuwait, while Iran responded by saying it had struck US military bases. Negotiation progress and military conflict are therefore unfolding at the same time, keeping tensions around the Strait of Hormuz elevated. After a brief pullback, oil prices rebounded. As of June 2, WTI crude traded around $104–$106 per barrel, suggesting that the geopolitical risk premium has not fully faded.

Bitcoin remained under pressure this week. It briefly rebounded to $76,200 on May 27, but sold off again after the PCE release, falling to a low of $72,800 on May 28 and marking a new low for 2026. Over the following two trading days, BTC traded within the $73,500–$74,800 range. As of June 2, Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000, while Ethereum also moved lower toward the $1,850 area. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index once dropped to 22, indicating extreme fear.

Overall, near-term institutional tailwinds are being constrained by tightening macro liquidity, and the market is now searching for a new equilibrium.

1. Core Developments in the Crypto Market

1.1 Institutional flows: ETFs record $1.42B in weekly net outflows, with May outflows totaling $2.43B

In the final week of May, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of $1.42 billion, marking the third-largest weekly outflow on record. On a daily basis, outflows totaled $334 million on Tuesday, $733 million on Wednesday, $229 million on Thursday, and $125 million on Friday.

Selling pressure was concentrated in leading funds. BlackRock's IBIT recorded $966 million in weekly net outflows, while Grayscale's GBTC and Fidelity's FBTC saw net outflows of $175 million and $169 million, respectively.

Across May, Bitcoin ETFs recorded positive inflows on only six trading days. Every trading day in the second half of the month saw net outflows, bringing total monthly net outflows to $2.43 billion — the largest monthly outflow since November 2025.

On the derivatives side, continued ETF outflows kept market sentiment tilted bearish, with perpetual Futures funding rates broadly remaining in negative territory.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily RSI has fallen into the 22–32 range, with multiple indicators confirming oversold conditions. The 4-hour RSI dropped as low as 22.01, while the 14-day RSI declined to 32.16. Some data sources even showed RSI falling to 27.43. If the $70,000 level is confirmed as broken, the next support zone may sit around $65,000–$62,000, overlapping with the 200-week moving average. According to Polymarket, traders now price the probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 before the end of 2026 at 62%, reflecting a more pessimistic outlook.

1.3 Stablecoins: total market capitalization contracts slightly by around $3B but remains near historical highs

As of May 31, total stablecoin market capitalization stood at approximately $316.95 billion, down slightly from the previous week. USDT remained dominant with a market capitalization of around $188.2 billion, accounting for 59.6% of the total, while USDC stood at approximately $75.8 billion, representing 24.0%. On May 27, Circle minted 500 million USDC on Solana, suggesting that institutional liquidity demand remains in place. Overall, although stablecoin reserves have contracted modestly, the crypto market's "dollar base layer" has not shown structural weakening.

In the yield-bearing stablecoin segment, Sky Protocol's sUSDS continued to lead the category with approximately $6.06 billion in TVL, maintaining its position as the industry's largest yield-bearing stablecoin. Ethena's sUSDE ranked second, with TVL of around $3.53 billion this week. However, USDe supply declined by roughly 28% during the month and was down approximately 34% year-to-date, mainly because its yield model, which relies on positive perpetual Futures funding rates, has been significantly compressed recently. Overall, the yield-bearing stablecoin sector is undergoing internal capital restructuring, with capital continuing to migrate from funding-rate-dependent products such as USDe toward protocol-yield-driven products such as sUSDS.

2.2 Commodities: gold fluctuates around $4,500 as silver weakens in tandem

Crude oil: Oil prices moved lower in a choppy pattern this week. On May 27, WTI traded around $93.89 per barrel, while Brent stood near $96.67 per barrel. The shifting trajectory of US–Iran negotiations remained the dominant driver for crude prices. From May 22 to 29, WTI Futures settlement prices fell 9.57%, while Brent declined 11.10%. By June 2, WTI had slipped further to around $90.67, with Brent near $93.48. As the US and Iran remain in a negotiation-driven phase with unresolved differences over memorandum terms, wide-range consolidation in oil prices is likely to continue.

Gold: London spot gold closed near $4,538 per ounce this week, rising slightly by 0.74% on a weekly basis, but overall price action remained weak within the $4,500–$4,550 range. The main source of pressure came from rising rate-hike expectations. April core PCE rose to 3.3% year-on-year, reinforcing the "higher for longer" rate narrative and continuing to weigh on non-yielding gold.

2.3 Bonds: 30-year Treasury yield stays above 5% as rate-hike pricing moves higher

Main sources of resistance:

• Ethics provisions: Democratic senators are demanding clauses that would prohibit senior officials from profiting from the crypto industry, directly targeting the Trump family's crypto business interests. The White House has not yet made concessions on this issue.

• Banking-sector opposition: Traditional financial institutions such as JPMorgan continue to pressure against provisions that would allow crypto firms to pay interest on user deposits and stablecoin balances.

• Congressional calendar: The June agenda is crowded, leaving the bill to compete for limited floor time.

Senator Cynthia Lummis emphasized that if this Congress fails to complete the legislation, the next realistic opportunity may not arrive until 2030.

It is important to clarify that the CLARITY Act has not yet passed the Senate, and tokens such as XRP and SOL have not received a clear legal classification as "commodities." Contrary to some earlier market rumors, as of June 2, the bill remains in the committee-version consolidation stage and is still being prepared for a full Senate vote.

Theme 2: April PCE Confirms Sticky Inflation as Rate-Hike Expectations Rise

April core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year, reaching its highest level since November 2023. Views within the Federal Reserve have become increasingly divided over the future rate path. Governor Lisa Cook said that "inflation is moving in the wrong direction" and signaled readiness to support rate hikes, while Governor Michelle Bowman clearly opposed using rate hikes to respond to energy-driven inflation. New Chair Kevin Warsh is pushing to shift the policy anchor toward the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean PCE inflation measure, which rose only 2.3% year-on-year in April, in an effort to better filter out one-off shocks. However, the debate between the two frameworks has itself added to uncertainty around the policy outlook.

Implications for crypto assets: In a high real-rate environment, crypto assets remain under pressure as zero-yield risk assets. Rate-cut expectations have largely disappeared, while some traders are already pricing in rate-hike risks for the second half of the year. Sticky inflation has also become one of the core reasons behind institutional withdrawals from crypto ETFs.

Theme 3: US–Iran Situation Remains Volatile as Geopolitical Premium Persists

On May 28, US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding, still pending approval from the top leadership of both sides. However, on the same day, Kuwait was hit by ballistic missile and drone attacks, injuring four US service members and sharply weakening the outlook for negotiations. On June 1, Kuwait again sounded air defense alerts, while the US and Iran each accused the other side of launching the first attack. Trump has reportedly tightened the terms of the memorandum significantly before sending it to Iran for review, making a near-term breakthrough more difficult.

Continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain directly tied to roughly 21% of global oil trade. After a brief pullback, oil prices have remained elevated, suggesting that the geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to fade in the near term.

4. Market Hot Topic Word Cloud

5. Key Focus Points for the Coming Week (June 3 – June 9)

6. MEXC Platform Highlights

6.1 RealStocks officially launches, introducing direct access to US stocks through licensed brokers

On June 1, MEXC officially launched RealStocks, becoming the first global exchange to provide direct access to real US stock trading through compliant licensed brokers. Users can purchase real US-listed shares with USDT through licensed brokers and hold actual shares with full shareholder entitlements, including dividends, distributions, and participation in applicable corporate actions. This differentiates RealStocks from mirrored token products that only provide price exposure. RealStocks currently covers the full Nasdaq market, and the Beta version has already been tested by more than 20,000 users.

The product supports 0 fees during the launch period, T+1 settlement, and instant transfers, while also being integrated with stocks Futures products, which currently cover more than 130 underlying assets on the platform. Alongside the product launch, MEXC introduced three limited-time offers: the SpaceX(PRE) airdrop campaign from May 28 to June 5, with a prize pool equivalent to 200,000 USDT in SPACEX(PRE); a $1 million stock reward pool from June 2 to June 16; and real-time market data subsidies for new users. The launch of the stocks Spot trading channel completes another key piece of MEXC's cross-asset allocation framework across crypto and traditional assets, aligning closely with systematic opportunities in equity markets under the US election backdrop. MEXC CEO Vugar Usi said that from participating in pre-listing opportunities to now holding actual equity, MEXC is enabling crypto users to participate in the world's leading companies as real shareholders.

6.2 SPACEX(PRE) Phase 2 Launchpad subscription window opens

From May 28 to June 5, the subscription window for MEXC SPACEX(PRE) Phase 2 Launchpad officially opened. The subscription price for this round is 130 USDT, approximately 70% of the post-split reference price, with the remaining 30% reflected as a discount. The previous Phase 1 subscription, which ran from May 14 to 21, was priced at 650 USDT and recorded total subscription volume of more than $56 million, with over 38,000 participants and peak oversubscription reaching 15.5x. Users can participate after completing SPACEX(PRE) subscription requirements and KYC verification, and the token will be tradable after the subscription ends with no lock-up period.

It is worth noting that SPACEX(PRE) tokens do not grant users equity ownership or shareholder rights. Instead, they are issued in the form of MEXC Mirror Credits as pre-listing asset certificates designed to track SpaceX-related market value before and after any potential public listing. Users from the United States, Canada, and certain restricted regions are currently not eligible to participate.

6.3 Pizza Day campaign enters its final stage

The Apple Pay and Google Pay 0 fees crypto purchase event will end on June 5. During the event, new users who make their first purchase of at least 100 USDT can receive a 10 USDT airdrop, while the top 300 users ranked by net purchase volume will share 15,000 USDT. The "City Rush" parkour game ended on June 2, with a prize pool including up to 1 BTC, the gold token XAUT, Futures bonuses, and limited-edition merchandise.

Disclaimer: This report is for research and reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice of any kind. Crypto asset prices are highly volatile, and geopolitical events as well as macroeconomic developments may have a material impact on market conditions. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance. Any platform products or trading pairs mentioned in this report are presented solely for objective informational purposes and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.