Forme Science Offers 100% Refund if Team USA Reaches World Cup Final, Using Prediction Market to Hedge Risk

Forme Science, the smart posture and recovery wearables brand worn by Olympians, pro athletes and celebrities, today launched what it calls the world’s first e-commerce promotion hedged on a prediction market. From now through June 30, customers who shop on forme.science and use code TEAMUSA at checkout will receive a 100% refund on their purchase if Team USA reaches the World Cup Final.

The campaign, powered by promotions platform PlayAbly and leveraging the federally regulated prediction market Kalshi, marks a milestone for both e-commerce and prediction markets. According to Forme co-founder Seiji Liu, the initiative is a way to share the excitement of the moment with customers. “Team USA has given the whole country something to cheer for, and we wanted to celebrate that the way Forme celebrates everything – by helping people perform at their best,” Liu said in a press release.

What makes this promotion notable is the underlying financial mechanism. Instead of bearing the full risk of a potential refund, Forme used PlayAbly to hedge the exposure by trading on Kalshi’s prediction market. “We created PlayAbly to add play to the shopping experience by harnessing excitement around cultural moments for brands,” said Angelo Ferro, founder and CEO of PlayAbly. “What’s better than winning? Shopping and winning!”

Nicolas Hull, director of business development at Kalshi, emphasized the broader implications. “Forme is the first e-commerce brand to use prediction markets to hedge risk. This is exactly the kind of business application Kalshi is built for. We’re making it easier for businesses to derisk bold ideas.”

The significance extends beyond a single promotion. As regulated prediction markets mature, they offer a new tool for brands to launch event-driven incentives without taking on unlimited financial exposure. “This represents a new era in consumer marketing,” Liu said. “Prediction markets are evolving beyond financial products into practical business infrastructure. Now brands can share in a moment like the World Cup without taking on unlimited financial exposure – and focus on creating memorable customer experiences.”

Forme Science, known for its patented intelligent posture wearables, serves consumers, elite athletes, healthcare professionals, and is the Official Posture & Recovery Partner of the MLB Players Association. The company continues to expand its data-driven health technologies aimed at improving musculoskeletal health and human performance.

The promotion itself is straightforward: customers shop at forme.science and use code TEAMUSA by June 30. If Team USA reaches the World Cup Final, every order placed with the code gets 100% cashback, excluding taxes and shipping. The offer is subject to official rules available on the Forme website.

For PlayAbly, which designed the campaign end-to-end, the goal is to demonstrate a new model for commerce that combines consumer engagement with financial innovation. “We saw the World Cup as the perfect stage and Forme as the perfect brand to make it real,” Ferro added. “This is what innovation looks like: finding new ways to bring people into the moment.”

As prediction markets continue to gain acceptance, companies like Forme and PlayAbly believe this approach could reshape promotional marketing across retail, travel, sports, entertainment, and consumer brands worldwide. The ability to hedge against unlikely outcomes could enable brands to offer bold promotions that were once considered too costly or unpredictable.

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