TD Cowen Slashes MSTR Stock Price Target by 35% as Bitcoin Outlook Weakens

Strategy (MSTR), the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is facing a more cautious outlook from Wall Street after investment bank TD Cowen reduced its price target on the stock by 35%.

The firm lowered its target from $400 to $260 while maintaining a Buy rating, signaling continued confidence in Strategy's long-term prospects despite growing uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's future price trajectory.

According to TD Cowen, the downgrade stems primarily from a reduced Bitcoin forecast rather than concerns over the company's recently unveiled capital allocation strategy.

Lower Bitcoin expectations drive downgrade

Strategy's valuation is closely tied to Bitcoin due to its aggressive treasury strategy. The company has accumulated $50B worth of BTC since 2020, making its stock one of the most popular vehicles for investors seeking leveraged exposure to the cryptocurrency.

As a result, changes in Bitcoin price forecasts have a direct impact on analysts' expectations for MSTR.

TD Cowen noted that its revised target reflects a more conservative outlook for Bitcoin's future performance. The investment bank believes weaker-than-expected price appreciation could limit Strategy's upside compared to previous projections.

The move comes as Bitcoin continues to face pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty, tightening liquidity conditions, and fluctuating institutional demand.

Analysts remain positive on Strategy

Despite the sharp reduction in its target price, TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating on Strategy.

The firm described the company's recently announced capital framework as "incrementally constructive," suggesting that management's efforts to improve financial flexibility and optimize capital allocation are moving in the right direction.

That distinction is important because it indicates the downgrade was driven by external market factors rather than concerns about Strategy's operations or treasury management strategy.

Investors have increasingly focused on how the company finances future Bitcoin purchases, especially as competition among corporate Bitcoin treasury firms continues to intensify.

What the downgrade means for investors

The revised target highlights how closely Strategy's fortunes remain linked to Bitcoin's performance.

While the stock has historically outperformed Bitcoin during bullish periods, it has also experienced deeper drawdowns during market corrections. 

In the last year, MSTR stock is down 76%, a significantly worse performance than Bitcoin’s 44% decline in the same time period.