Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Prediction: Cincinnati Open 2026 Third-Round Preview

Rafael Jódar faces Alejandro Tabilo at the Cincinnati Open on August 18, 2026 at 02:00 UTC+8.

The matchup is especially intriguing because the pair have already played twice on hard courts in 2026, splitting the two meetings 1-1.

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Summary

• Match: Rafael Jódar vs Alejandro Tabilo
• Tournament: Cincinnati Open
• Round: Third round
• Prediction: Rafael Jódar
• Predicted score: Jódar 2-1
• Estimated probability: Jódar 63% – Tabilo 37%
• Current ranking: Jódar No. 11, Tabilo around No. 29

Why Jodar Is Favored

Jódar's rise has been extraordinary.

The 19-year-old Spaniard has climbed from outside the Top 800 to around world No. 11, and he entered this matchup having won eight of his previous ten matches.

In Cincinnati he survived an extraordinary match against Denis Shapovalov, recovering from 1-5 down in the final set and saving two match points before winning 7-5, 4-6, 7-5.

Tabilo Cannot Be Underestimated

Tabilo beat Jan-Lennard Struff 6-3, 6-4 in Cincinnati and required considerably less court time than Jódar in the previous round.

Fatigue therefore represents one of the main risks to the Jódar prediction.

Recent Head-to-Head

Tabilo won their March meeting, but Jódar responded by beating him 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 in Washington on August 2.

Jodar vs Tabilo Prediction

Final Prediction: Rafael Jodar 2-1 Alejandro Tabilo

Jódar's current hard-court form and recent head-to-head victory give him the edge, although his heavy workload increases the chance of a three-set match.

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FAQ

Who leads the head-to-head?

It is tied 1-1 in 2026.

Who is favored?

Rafael Jódar.

Predicted score?

Jódar 2-1 Tabilo.