Nubank (NU) Q3 2026 Earnings Analysis: $1.1B Record Profit, 7.3% NPL

 

Nu Holdings reported net income of $1,091.6 million on revenue of $6,258.5 million in the third quarter, both records, while the 90-plus day non-performing loan ratio rose from 6.9% to 7.3%. The two are not contradictory, because profit is driven by scale and delinquency by vintage, and this quarter's real information sits in the numerator: derived from the disclosed ratio and the managerial credit portfolio, 90-plus day non-performing balances grew from $2.719 billion to $3.037 billion, up 11.7%, against credit portfolio growth of 5.6%, making bad loans grow 2.1 times as fast as the book.

 

The direction matters more still. On the interest-earning basis, early-stage 15 to 90 day delinquency fell from 8.2% to 8.0% while 90-plus rose from 11.6% to 12.1%. Early improving while late deteriorates indicates pressure from a seasoned cohort rolling through rather than newly originated assets going bad.

 

 

 

Revenue reached $6,258.5 million on a managerial basis, up 37% year on year FX-neutral, against $5,820.4 million on the IFRS accounting basis, a gap of $438.1 million or 7.53%. Net income of $1,091.6 million grew 31% year on year FX-neutral but only 5% sequentially against 8% revenue growth, pushing net margin from 18.06% last quarter to 17.44% against 18.13% a year ago. Managerial cost of credit of $1,788.7 million grew 72.7% year on year in reported dollars, 1.62 times the 45.0% revenue growth on the same basis, lifting its share of revenue from 24.0% to 28.6%. Customers reached 142.6 million at an 83.6% activity rate, with deposits of $47.5 billion and a credit portfolio of $41.6 billion, taking the loan-to-deposit ratio from 78.4% a year ago to 87.6%. The efficiency ratio improved to 19.3% from 19.5% and 20.3%, while net interest margin was 22.5% and risk-adjusted NIM was 12.1% as reported or 12.7% excluding non-recurring items.

 

 

The first thing this report requires is not a verdict but a decision about which set of numbers is being read.

 

Nu Holdings disclosed both a managerial and an IFRS accounting basis in its Form 6-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Managerial revenue was $6,258.5 million against $5,820.4 million on the IFRS basis, a difference of $438.1 million with the managerial figure 7.53% higher. Gross profit splits the same way, $2,597.6 million managerial against $2,436.9 million on the IFRS basis, a difference of $160.7 million or 6.59%. Every growth rate the company labels in its release is FX-neutral, which matters particularly for Latin American operations, since moves in the real and the Mexican peso are large enough to make identical business produce entirely different year-on-year figures.

 

The year-on-year column below keeps the FX-neutral basis the company uses, and any figure derived in this article is marked as calculated in reported dollars.

 

 

In reported dollars, revenue grew 45.0% year on year, or 39.5% on the IFRS basis, both above the 37% FX-neutral figure, meaning currency was a tailwind to the translated dollar numbers this quarter. Any citation of these figures has to name the basis, or 37%, 39.5% and 45.0% read as three contradictory conclusions.

 

Inside the credit portfolio, credit cards reached $27.2 billion, up 32% FX-neutral; unsecured lending reached $11.0 billion, up 39% and 7.5% sequentially; and secured lending reached $3.4 billion, up 23%. Unsecured lending grew fastest and is also the principal source of credit cost.

 

The market reaction was muted. Per Seeking Alpha, revenue of $6.26 billion beat the $5.94 billion consensus by 5.4% while earnings of $0.22 a share came in line. Trading data recorded by GuruFocus shows the stock closed at $11.83 on November 12 and rose 2.1% after hours, while purchase volume of $44.2 billion fell 3.3% short of the $45.7 billion expected. A revenue beat alongside a purchase volume miss points to different conclusions about demand within the same report.

 

 

Absolute figures and ratios moved in opposite directions this quarter, and the ratios lead.

 

Net margin ran 18.13% a year ago, 18.06% last quarter and 17.44% now, down 0.69 points year on year and 0.62 sequentially. The sequential split is the more direct reading: in reported dollars revenue grew 6.5% while net income grew 2.9%, so incremental revenue did not reach the bottom line in proportion.

 

Gross margin held up better, at 41.95% a year ago, 41.55% last quarter and 41.51% now, essentially flat, which places the compression below the gross line. The change is in credit cost.

 

Managerial cost of credit was $1,788.7 million against $1,035.8 million a year earlier, growth of 72.7% in reported dollars, while the IFRS expected credit loss provision was $1,668.5 million against $977.5 million, growth of 70.7%. Revenue on the same basis grew 45.0%. Credit cost therefore grew 1.62 times as fast as revenue and took its share of revenue from 24.0% to 28.6%, a rise of 4.6 points.

 

Those 4.6 points are the key to the whole report. The company absorbed them through a steadily improving efficiency ratio and expanding unit economics, which is why net margin fell only 0.69 points rather than more. But absorption capacity has a ceiling, and what drives credit cost is the subject of the next section.

 

On how revenue, gross margin and earnings quality corroborate one another, a close reading of US stock income statements sets out a reusable order of checks, while the relationship between earnings cash flow and valuation handles how these metrics eventually reach price.

 

 

A delinquency ratio is a ratio, and ratios systematically understate problems on a fast-growing book.

 

 

The 90-plus day ratio rose from 6.9% to 7.3%, up 0.4 points, which is the disclosed figure. Converting it back to balances produces a clearer picture.

 

Last quarter's $39.4 billion credit portfolio times 6.9% gives $2.719 billion; this quarter's $41.6 billion times 7.3% gives $3.037 billion. The balance grew 11.7% sequentially against credit portfolio growth of 5.6% in reported dollars. Bad loans grew 2.10 times as fast as the book.

 

That multiple explains why a 0.4 point move deserves separate analysis. When the denominator expands at more than 5% a quarter, newly originated loans have not yet entered delinquency and mechanically dilute the ratio, so a ratio that still rises during rapid growth means the numerator is deteriorating faster than the ratio shows. The 15 to 90 day balance converts the same way, from $1.891 billion to $2.038 billion, up 7.8% and also faster than the book.

 

 

The company discloses two bases, and they differ by 4.8 points.

 

 

The numerator is the same set of loans in both bases, and the difference comes entirely from the denominator. Dividing this quarter's $3.037 billion by 12.1% gives an interest-earning portfolio of roughly $25.1 billion; dividing last quarter's $2.719 billion by 11.6% gives roughly $23.4 billion. Interest-earning balances therefore represent about 60.3% of the total credit portfolio, against 59.5% last quarter.

 

The derivation cross-checks against a second set of figures. The 15 to 90 day balance of $2.038 billion divided by $25.1 billion gives 8.1% against a disclosed 8.0%, and last quarter's $1.891 billion divided by $23.4 billion also gives 8.1% against a disclosed 8.2%. Both deviations fall within rounding, which establishes that the derived denominator is sound.

 

The gap originates in the structure of the card business. Customers who pay in full generate no interest, so their balances count toward total credit but not toward interest-earning balances, and the same bad loans landing on a smaller denominator produce a higher ratio. The practical implication is that any citation of Nubank's delinquency has to name the basis: 7.3% and 12.1% are both correct, cannot be compared against each other, and cannot be placed alongside another bank that discloses only one basis.

 

 

This is the most valuable detail in the quarter.

 

On the interest-earning basis, early-stage 15 to 90 day delinquency fell from 8.2% to 8.0%, down 0.2 points, while 90-plus rose from 11.6% to 12.1%, up 0.5 points. Early is improving and late is deteriorating.

 

Delinquency is a sequential process in which loans enter early-stage before rolling into late-stage, making the early metric a leading indicator and the late metric a lagging one. When the two diverge, it usually means current late-stage deterioration comes from loans originated several quarters earlier completing that roll, while recently originated assets are not deteriorating in step. That fits the fact that unsecured lending grew 39% year on year FX-neutral, since loans written during rapid expansion take three to four quarters to reveal their true loss rate.

 

The limits of that inference need stating alongside it. Early-stage delinquency actually rose on the total credit basis, from 4.8% to 4.9%, the opposite direction from the interest-earning basis. The two diverge because the denominators grew at different rates: on the derivation above, interest-earning balances grew roughly 7.1% sequentially against 5.6% for total credit. What can be established here is that late-stage deterioration more likely originates in the back book than in new origination, not that early-stage pressure has cleared.

 

On provisioning, coverage of 90-plus day non-performing loans stood at 234%. Against this quarter's $3.037 billion of 90-plus balances, that implies an allowance of roughly $7.1 billion, equal to 17.1% of the credit portfolio. A second reference point is that the $1,788.7 million of credit cost taken in this single quarter equals 59% of the entire 90-plus stock.

 

 

This section explains what absorbed those 4.6 points.

 

Net interest margin was 22.5%. Risk-adjusted NIM is the measure net of credit cost, and this quarter it produced a situation requiring careful handling: the reported figure fell from 12.4% last quarter to 12.1%, down 0.3 points, while the figure excluding non-recurring items rose from 11.9% to 12.7%, up 0.8 points.

 

The same two quarters and the same metric give opposite directions on the two series. The reason is that the adjustments carry opposite signs in the two quarters, down 0.5 points last quarter and up 0.6 points this quarter. Any conclusion about this metric's trend must first name the series, or two contradictory and separately defensible statements can coexist. This article uses the reported figure in later comparisons, because it does not depend on how non-recurring items are classified.

 

The efficiency ratio is the cleaner measure. It was 19.3% this quarter against 19.5% last quarter and 20.3% a year ago, improving consecutively and holding below 20%. For a bank that is a very low level, meaning less than twenty cents of every revenue dollar goes to operating expense.

 

Unit economics explain why the efficiency ratio keeps falling. Monthly average revenue per active customer was $17.7, up 21% FX-neutral, against a monthly cost to serve of $1.1, up 10%. Revenue grew at more than twice the pace of cost, widening the ratio between them from 15.3 times a year ago to 16.1 times and the monthly gross spread from $12.9 to $16.6, a gain of 28.7%. Return on equity was 32% against 33% last quarter and 31% a year ago.

 

By geography, Brazil holds close to 120 million customers and $38.6 billion of deposits; Mexico holds 16.6 million customers, up 27% year on year, with $5.3 billion; and Colombia holds 6.1 million, up 62%, with $3.5 billion. The two fastest-growing markets hold $8.8 billion of deposits between them, or 18.5% of the total, so they currently shape the growth curve rather than the income statement. The company said this quarter that it took its first steps beyond Latin America.

 

 

The Banco Central do Brasil held the Selic rate at 13.75% by unanimous vote on November 4, ending five consecutive cuts of 0.25 points each, with the rate at that level since September. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics put 12-month inflation to September at 4.58%, above the 4.5% ceiling of the tolerance range around the 3% target, while the Focus survey expects 5.2% for 2026 and 4.8% for 2027. The next rate decision falls on December 9.

 

Rates affect this company in two directions. High rates raise funding costs and压 household repayment capacity, consistent with the direction of late-stage deterioration, while the five preceding cuts need time to reach borrower cash flows, so this quarter's credit cost reflects an earlier rate environment more than the current one. That is why the divergence between early and late-stage metrics carries explanatory weight right now.

 

Three scenarios deserve separate preparation. In the first, late-stage delinquency peaks within one or two quarters, supported by the improvement already visible in the early-stage metric on the interest-earning basis; if that holds, credit cost stops rising as a share of revenue and net margin compression ends with it. In the second, the early-stage metric deteriorates again, at which point the 4.9% reading on the total credit basis keeps climbing, and that measure leads the 90-plus figure. In the third, growth slows while vintages keep seasoning, which is the combination to watch most closely, because a denominator that stops expanding lets the ratio accelerate and the 7.3% reading keeps rising without any new bad loans.

 

Concretely, what to watch next is whether 15 to 90 day delinquency on the interest-earning basis falls for a second consecutive quarter, whether credit cost peaks near 28.6% of revenue, whether unsecured lending's 39% FX-neutral growth slows, and the December 9 rate decision. On valuation, GuruFocus's automated data puts the trailing price-to-earnings ratio at 16.1 times against a five-year median of 31.5, a gap of 48.9%.

 

Readers wanting to set the earnings date against the share price reaction can mark November 12 on the chart on the NU price and company page. Stock and futures markets on MEXC typically see short-lived shifts in liquidity and spreads through dense earnings windows.

 

 

What this report most invites is misreading the move from 6.9% to 7.3% as a minor 0.4 point fluctuation. Converted to balances, 90-plus day non-performing loans grew from $2.719 billion to $3.037 billion, up 11.7%, while the credit portfolio grew 5.6%, making bad loans grow 2.10 times as fast as the book. On a loan book expanding more than 5% a quarter, newly originated assets have not yet entered delinquency and continuously dilute the ratio, so the fact that the ratio rose at all means the numerator deteriorated faster than the headline suggests. The figure to track is the gap between those two growth rates, not the absolute level of the ratio.

 

Reading this as broad asset quality deterioration is equally wrong, however. On the interest-earning basis, early-stage delinquency fell from 8.2% to 8.0% while late-stage rose from 11.6% to 12.1%, in opposite directions. Delinquency is a sequential process in which early leads and late lags, and a divergence usually means current late-stage pressure comes from loans originated several quarters ago completing their roll rather than new assets going bad. Given unsecured lending growth of 39% FX-neutral, that explanation fits the business facts. The caution is that early-stage delinquency actually rose from 4.8% to 4.9% on the total credit basis, the opposite direction, so what is established concerns the source of late-stage deterioration and not that early-stage pressure has cleared.

 

Measurement basis matters more at this company than at most banks, and it is where citing its data goes wrong most often. The same 90-plus day loans read 7.3% against total credit and 12.1% against interest-earning balances, a gap of 4.8 points, because balances of customers who pay in full count toward the first denominator and not the second, with interest-earning balances derived at roughly 60.3% of total credit. Risk-adjusted NIM is more extreme still, falling 0.3 points sequentially on the reported series and rising 0.8 points excluding non-recurring items, giving opposite directions for the same two quarters because the adjustments carry opposite signs. No statement about the trend in either metric holds without naming the series.

 

For investors assessing this company, the decisive ratio is credit cost growth against revenue growth. This quarter credit cost grew 72.7% in reported dollars against revenue growth of 45.0%, a ratio of 1.62, lifting its share of revenue from 24.0% to 28.6%. The company absorbed those 4.6 points by taking the efficiency ratio from 20.3% to 19.3% and widening the monthly gross spread per active customer by 28.7%, which is why net margin fell only 0.69 points. That absorption is real, but it has a ceiling, and an efficiency ratio already at 19.3% leaves less room to compress than it did in earlier years. Should credit cost keep rising as a share of revenue over the next two quarters, operating leverage will no longer offset it and margin compression will be sharper than this quarter's. That is why the next reading on early-stage delinquency is worth more than the next quarter's profit figure.

 

 

 

Net income was $1,091.6 million, a record, up 31% year on year FX-neutral and 5% sequentially. Revenue was $6,258.5 million on the managerial basis, up 37% year on year FX-neutral, against $5,820.4 million on the IFRS accounting basis. Earnings of $0.22 a share came in line with consensus while revenue beat the $5.94 billion expected by 5.4%.

 

 

It needs reading through the numerator rather than the ratio alone. The 90-plus day balance grew from $2.719 billion to $3.037 billion, up 11.7%, while the credit portfolio grew 5.6%, making bad loans grow 2.10 times as fast as the book. On a rapidly growing loan book, newly originated assets mechanically dilute the ratio, so a ratio that still rises means deterioration exceeds what 0.4 points suggests. Coverage stood at 234%, implying an allowance of roughly $7.1 billion or 17.1% of the credit portfolio.

 

 

Because the denominators differ. The 7.3% figure uses total credit as its denominator and the 12.1% figure uses the interest-earning portfolio, with the same 90-plus day loans as the numerator. Credit card customers who pay in full generate no interest, so their balances count toward total credit but not toward interest-earning balances, and deriving from the two ratios puts interest-earning balances at roughly 60.3% of total credit. Both figures are correct, cannot be compared against each other, and require the basis to be named.

 

 

The available data does not support that conclusion. On the interest-earning basis, early-stage 15 to 90 day delinquency fell from 8.2% to 8.0% while 90-plus rose from 11.6% to 12.1%. The early metric leads and the late metric lags, so opposite directions usually mean late-stage pressure comes from the back book rolling through rather than from new origination. Early-stage delinquency rose from 4.8% to 4.9% on the total credit basis, however, so this judgment extends only to the source of late-stage deterioration.

 

 

Because credit cost is growing faster than revenue. Managerial cost of credit grew 72.7% year on year in reported dollars against revenue growth of 45.0%, a ratio of 1.62, lifting its share of revenue from 24.0% to 28.6%. Net margin consequently fell from 18.13% a year ago and 18.06% last quarter to 17.44%. Sequentially, revenue grew 6.5% while net income grew 2.9%.

 

 

It depends on the series. The reported figure fell from 12.4% last quarter to 12.1%, down 0.3 points, while the figure excluding non-recurring items rose from 11.9% to 12.7%, up 0.8 points. The adjustments carry opposite signs in the two quarters, down 0.5 points last quarter and up 0.6 this quarter, which is why the directions diverge. Net interest margin itself was 22.5%.

 

 

At 19.3% against 19.5% last quarter and 20.3% a year ago, it means less than twenty cents of every revenue dollar goes to operating expense. Unit economics support it: monthly revenue per active customer of $17.7 grew 21% FX-neutral against a monthly cost to serve of $1.1 growing 10%, widening the ratio between them from 15.3 times to 16.1. This is the company's main source of absorption for rising credit cost.

 

 

Because the business concentrates in Latin America, where moves in the real and the Mexican peso are large enough to make identical operations produce different year-on-year figures. Every growth rate the company discloses is FX-neutral, putting revenue at 37%. In reported dollars the same figure is 45.0%, and on the IFRS accounting basis 39.5%. All three correspond to real calculations, and mixing them produces contradictory conclusions.

 

 

The Banco Central do Brasil held its policy rate at 13.75% by unanimous vote on November 4, ending five consecutive cuts of 0.25 points each, with 12-month inflation to September at 4.58% and above the 4.5% ceiling, and the next decision on December 9. High rates raise funding costs and constrain household repayment capacity, consistent with the direction of late-stage deterioration, while the preceding cuts take time to transmit, so this quarter's credit cost reflects an earlier rate environment.

 

 

This article is for general information only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Figures are current as of November 13, 2026, and the company disclosures, consensus estimates and third-party valuation data cited do not represent actual outcomes, while figures identified as derived are reconstructed from disclosed ratios and will change with subsequent disclosure. Equities and leveraged products are highly volatile and can produce losses exceeding the initial outlay. Readers should verify the original disclosures and judge independently, consulting a qualified professional where appropriate. MEXC operates in compliance with applicable laws and regulations and does not offer services to residents of restricted jurisdictions.

 

 

MEXC Editorial Team provides the latest platform updates, product launches, trading feature guides, and industry insights. With a focus on developments in the global crypto market, it delivers transparent information, professional data, and forward-looking analysis. Both beginners and experienced traders can find firsthand updates, in-depth observations, and official announcements related to the MEXC ecosystem.

 

 

 

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